Earnings to Watch – Week of 5 October 2026

Our readNorth American snack volume is the swing factor, as the clearest test of whether the price cuts are supporting demand. Volume went from down 4% a year ago to up 2% in the first quarter and flat in the second, and PepsiCo has since confirmed it will raise some chip prices again, by low-to-mid single digits around the turn of the year, to levels it says will stay below those before the cuts. Watch whether management holds the full-year range, and how much of it rests on tariff-refund claims, which the company put at about one percentage point of full-year earnings growth; North American beverage margins, which fell about 90 basis points in the second quarter; and any timing for the supply-chain review promised for late 2026 under the plan PepsiCo agreed in December with the support of Elliott, which disclosed a stake of about $4bn last September. The read-across is to parts of packaged food, where volumes are still falling as prices rise: Conagra’s grocery and snacks volume fell 5.4% in the quarter it reported last week and McCormick’s consumer volume and mix slipped 1.1%, though both reaffirmed their guidance.

Our readThe first fiscal 2027 guide is the swing factor, with consensus for the year just ended already close to management’s outlook: MarketScreener’s compilation of estimates puts fiscal 2026 operating profit at about ¥733bn, a shade above the guide, and fiscal 2027 at about ¥832bn, roughly 13.5% higher. Watch the yen, at about ¥158 to the dollar and weaker than a year ago, which lifts overseas profit in translation but raises the cost of goods sold in Japan – the finance chief called it a growing difficulty in July; Greater China, where revenue shrank last year but has grown again in local currency; and North America, where the company has said it offset US tariffs by limiting discounts and raising some prices. The read-across is to global apparel, after Nike reported a 26% currency-neutral fall in Greater China revenue on Thursday and H&M said it expected September sales to rise 1% in local currencies, and to Japanese retail, with ABC-Mart and Seven & i reporting the same week.

Our readPricing is the swing factor. Management said in July that it passes AI productivity gains on to clients at renewal and that new work often makes up for them; the question is whether that still nets out. Accenture’s report on Thursday argued for steadier demand, with new bookings of $22.2bn, record managed-services bookings and fiscal 2027 guidance of 3–6% growth in local currency; its shares rose 16% on the day before giving back about 6% on Friday. It came after the Indian close, so Monday is the first session to price it. Watch deal wins against Kotak’s $10–11bn; annualised AI revenue, which TCS put at $2.6bn in the first quarter; and North America and financial services, where management pointed to strength at US banks in July. The read-across is to HCLTech on 12 October, Wipro and Tech Mahindra on 15 October and Infosys later in the month, though each has its own mix and its own guidance practice.

Our readFourth-quarter guidance is the swing factor. Delta has not yet given one, and the full-year adjusted earnings range of $6.50–7.50 a share, last affirmed in July, now leans on it. On our arithmetic, in a scenario where the third quarter lands near consensus, first-half adjusted earnings of $2.20 leave the low end needing about $2.40 in the fourth quarter, against $1.55 a year ago. Watch passenger unit revenue alongside realised fuel costs, for signs that pricing and mix are offsetting the rise in fuel; capacity, where Delta had planned growth of 2–3% in the fourth quarter; and the Monroe refinery, which benefits from high diesel margins but ran at reduced rates after an outage in the summer. The read-across is to United, American and Southwest later in October, and to travel spending more broadly. Carnival, also unhedged, absorbed higher fuel costs last week and still nudged up its full-year guidance, though cruises are booked much further ahead than flights.

Our readSecond-quarter UK like-for-likes are the swing factor, read alongside volumes and the UK & Ireland margin, 5.0% a year ago, which together indicate what defending its position is costing. Management said in June that it would not chase share at any price and described the market as highly competitive but fairly rational; since then, Morrisons has kept investing in price and Asda’s sales returned to growth in the latest Worldpanel data. Watch whether the £3.0bn floor of the profit guide moves, which UBS has suggested it could, and the buyback, with £550m of a £750m programme done by the end of July. The read-across is to Sainsbury’s, which reports interims on 22 October and held its share flat in the same Worldpanel period, and to the wider argument over whether UK grocery is heading into a price war.

Our readDepletions are the swing factor, because the guide assumes shipments and depletions roughly match over the year. At a conference on 8 September, Fink described the consumer as stretched, pointed to more headwinds among Hispanic consumers in Florida and Texas, and called August’s off-premise scanner data “pretty lackluster”; the shares fell 5.6% that day, and several brokers cut their price targets later in the month. RBC expects flat beer depletions for the quarter. Watch the quarterly beer margin, and whether management keeps its 37–38% full-year outlook for it after flagging second-half pressure from logistics and commodity costs and heavier marketing; any change to its other full-year targets; and the pace of buybacks. The read-across is to spending by its US beer customers, including Hispanic consumers, and to the brewers reporting later in the season, with Heineken on 28 October and AB InBev on 29 October, though a portfolio built on Mexican imports makes Constellation a narrower read on the category than either.

Our readThe sugar business is the swing factor, both its second quarter and the outlook for the 2026 beet campaign. Germany’s beet crop has been hit by drought and disease: the industry body WVZ expects German sugar output of about 3.4m tonnes, roughly 1m tonnes less than last year, and growers in the south, Südzucker’s core area, have warned of a historic crop failure. A smaller crop could support prices but means less volume to spread costs over. Watch whether the segment was still loss-making in the second quarter; cash flow and net debt; and how long management expects the ethanol strength to last, after disruption linked to the Strait of Hormuz reportedly curbed cheaper imports into Europe. The read-across is to European sugar and biofuels, a niche corner of the market, with AGRANA, Südzucker’s listed fruit, starch and sugar subsidiary, reporting the same day after raising its own profit guide on 28 September.