Earnings to Watch – Week of 13 July 2026

$TSM reports second-quarter results on Thursday at 2pm Taipei time – 2am in New York, well before the US open – the anchor of the week. The first quarter was emphatic: revenue rose about 41% in dollar terms to $35.9bn, net income jumped 58%, gross margin held at 66.2%, and high-performance computing – the AI-driven platform – reached 61% of revenue. On the back of it, management raised its 2026 revenue-growth outlook to “above 30%” in dollars and pointed capex toward the high end of its $52–56bn range. The quarter looks to have tracked well: April and May monthly sales were strong – May an all-time record – and consensus sits at the very top of the $39.0–40.2bn revenue guide, at around $3.80 of ADR earnings. The June sales figure, delayed by a typhoon, lands on Monday, three days before the print.

The setup has two sides. The ADR rose about 40% over the second quarter to a record close near $478 on 30 June – then gave back roughly 9% in early July as worries about the cost of the AI buildout rattled the complex. Citi raised its target by about a third into the print, arguing TSMC is likely to lift its full-year guidance again; industry reports suggest 2nm capacity for 2026 is fully booked, with pricing on advanced nodes moving higher.

$JPM reports second-quarter results before the open on Tuesday – the traditional opening bell of US earnings season, and this time an unusually crowded one: Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs all report the same morning. JPMorgan enters it from strength. The first quarter beat by around 8% – $5.94 of earnings, fixed-income trading up 21% and investment-banking fees up 28% – while credit stayed benign: the card charge-off rate of 3.47% sat close to the ~3.4% full-year guide and management called the consumer “fundamentally healthy”. Full-year guidance held at roughly $103bn of net interest income and about $105bn of expenses. Consensus for the quarter sits around $5.4–5.6 of earnings, with estimates more dispersed than usual.

The backdrop has shifted since April. The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% in June and its projections erased the year’s expected cut – markets now flirt with a hike – which reframes every net-interest-income question banks were asked three months ago. June’s stress test cleared the way for a dividend increase to $1.65 from the third quarter and a fresh $50bn buyback. And the succession picture changed: Marianne Lake, long seen as the front-runner, is retiring, with Doug Petno and Troy Rohrbaugh named co-presidents.

$ASML reports second-quarter results early Wednesday, Amsterdam time – the AI-capex litmus test, a day ahead of TSMC. The first quarter beat: sales of €8.8bn with gross margin at the top of the guide and EUV at about two-thirds of system sales – and management raised full-year guidance to €36–40bn (from €34–39bn), saying memory customers see their 2026 capacity as effectively sold out and demand conversations are moving to 2027. One structural change reshapes this print, though: from this year ASML no longer publishes quarterly bookings – the lumpy order number the market used to trade the stock on – so order momentum now has to be read from commentary rather than a headline figure. The second-quarter guide is €8.4–9.0bn at a 51–52% gross margin, and consensus sits roughly in line.

The shares have had a huge run – up about 65% this year to a record on 22 June, since faded by around 7% – and the policy overhang has grown with them: a proposed US bill, the MATCH Act, would extend export controls to immersion-DUV tools going into China – roughly a fifth of sales – and, depending on its final text, could further constrain their servicing; the Dutch government is lobbying against it.

$JNJ reports before the open on Wednesday – the first big-pharma print of the season. The first quarter was ahead on both lines – sales of $24.1bn, up almost 10%, and adjusted earnings of $2.70 – and guidance was nudged up to $100.3–101.3bn of revenue and $11.45–11.65 of earnings, alongside a 64th consecutive dividend increase. The shape of the growth matters as much as the pace: oncology grew 23% and Tremfya 68%, more than absorbing Stelara’s biosimilar collapse – down about 60%, a roughly nine-point drag on pharma growth that shrinks as the base erodes. MedTech grew nearly 8%, but its margin fell more than three points, mostly on tariffs flowing through cost of goods.

Policy is the quieter subplot. J&J signed a most-favoured-nation pricing deal with the administration in January that exempts its medicines from the pharmaceutical tariffs taking effect on 31 July, concentrating its direct tariff exposure in MedTech – though indirect supply-chain costs may remain. Consensus for the quarter is $2.85 on about $25.1bn – and the shares reached a record on 7 July, up around 24% this year, a rare bright spot in a lagging healthcare tape.

$UNH reports before the open on Thursday – the rebuilding-credibility print. The past eighteen months brought a guidance cut, then a full suspension, a CEO change that returned Stephen Hemsley to the job, and finally a reset: 2026 guidance calls for revenue above $439bn – a deliberate contraction as unprofitable membership is shed – adjusted earnings above $18.25 (raised from $17.75 after the first quarter), and a medical-cost ratio of 88.8% plus or minus half a point. The first quarter came in ahead of the reset plan: the cost ratio improved year on year to 83.9%, Medicare Advantage membership shrank roughly on plan, and Optum Health’s margin repair tracked ahead of schedule – though its earnings were still below last year’s. Consensus for the quarter is about $4.85 of adjusted earnings.

The market has already paid for much of the repair: the shares have rallied roughly 80% from last year’s low to around $425 – still some 30% below the late-2024 peak – helped by a wave of upgrades in May and June and a materially better final 2027 Medicare Advantage rate. Two cautions frame the print: management guided about two-thirds of this year’s earnings into the first half, making any second-quarter shortfall hard to recover in the lighter second half, and the Justice Department’s investigations into Medicare billing practices remain open.

$NFLX reports Thursday after the close – the first mega-cap tech print of the season, and from an unfamiliar position: the shares fell about 24% in the first half and sit more than 40% below their high, after Netflix lost the Warner Bros. bidding war to Paramount (collecting a $2.8bn break fee as consolation), Reed Hastings stepped off the board, and April’s guidance underwhelmed. The business itself has kept compounding: first-quarter revenue rose 16% to $12.25bn at a 32.3% operating margin, US prices went up about 11% in March, and the advertising tier reached a reported 250 million monthly viewers – an audience measure broader than paid accounts – by the May upfront. Guidance for the quarter is $12.6bn of revenue at a 32.6% margin, and consensus sits right on it; the full-year frame – $50.7–51.7bn of revenue, a 31.5% margin, and ad revenue roughly doubling to around $3bn – is what the market is actually trading.

One timing wrinkle: the football World Cup kicked off on 11 June, so the last three weeks of the quarter competed with live football, while the knockout rounds and 19 July final – still ahead when Netflix reports – are mostly a current-quarter story. Bernstein trimmed its estimates on the tournament as an engagement and sign-up headwind while keeping a positive rating.

$ABB reports Thursday morning in Zurich – Europe’s electrification and data-centre-capex read, and the first of the big electrification names to print this quarter, ahead of GE Vernova, Schneider, Eaton and Vertiv. The first quarter was about as strong as the theme gets: record orders of $11.3bn, up 32%, with Electrification orders up 51% and data-centre orders up triple-digit; book-to-bill reached 1.29, the backlog hit a record $27.5bn, and full-year guidance was raised. The 23.5% operational margin was flattered by a property gain – the underlying improvement was closer to 70 basis points – and pricing was still catching up with tariff costs in Electrification. One portfolio change to note: the robotics division is no longer being spun off but sold to SoftBank for $5.4bn, with closing expected in the second half.

The shares are up about 40% this year, near record territory, and the modelling bar has risen with them – UBS pencils in roughly 25% comparable Electrification order growth for the quarter, against a 44% comparable from a year ago.

India’s biggest company closes the week: Reliance Industries reports June-quarter results on Friday, with the release expected after the Mumbai close. The quarter spans the peak of the Hormuz crisis and its mid-June resolution, which cuts both ways for the refining-and-chemicals engine: middle-distillate cracks hit all-time highs in April – a genuine windfall for refiners – though higher crude premiums, freight and inventory timing may claw back part of it in the quarter. Last quarter showed the strain, with profit down about 13% and the energy segment squeezed by supply disruption. The other engines matter more each year – the consumer businesses passed half of group EBITDA in the last fiscal year: Jio’s revenue per user has drifted up without a tariff hike (one is widely expected later in the fiscal year), and the all-new-shares Jio IPO – filed in June, with press estimates putting proceeds at roughly $3–4bn depending on final pricing – hangs over everything; it could become India’s largest ever, with a listing window reported for later this year.

The shares tell a different story from the franchise: down roughly 16% this year amid record foreign outflows from Indian equities, and about 19% below their 52-week high.

$BLK reports before the open on Wednesday. The first quarter was strong on its own terms – $130bn of net inflows, the best first-quarter organic base-fee growth in five years, and an earnings beat – even as assets under management slipped from December’s record $14.0tn to $13.9tn on the market drawdown. The second quarter should reverse that: the S&P 500 rose about 15% over the three months, some Street models put assets near $14.8tn, and adjusted-earnings consensus sits around $12.6. The complication is private markets. The $26bn HPS private-credit fund has applied its contractual 5% quarterly repurchase cap for two quarters running – the latest round of requests reached about 13% of shares outstanding – while the listed alternatives complex remains deep in drawdown; BlackRock’s own shares went sideways through a quarter in which the index surged.