US stocks rose on the week. The S&P 500 gained 1.2%, setting a record close on Tuesday and ending Friday just below it, while the Nasdaq added 0.6% and the Dow 0.9%. The 10-year Treasury yield touched about 5.36% on Wednesday, its highest since 2002, before ending the week at 5.24%. Minutes of the Fed’s September meeting, when it raised rates for the first time since 2023, showed most officials judged another increase by year-end likely to be appropriate. Chip stocks fell about 4% even as TSMC’s third-quarter sales beat forecasts. Brent rose about 2% to $104.72 as Hurricane Isaias shut much of the US Gulf of Mexico’s oil output. This week brings September consumer prices on Wednesday, with forecasts pointing to annual inflation of about 3.7%, up from 3.4%; the US bond market is closed on Monday for Columbus Day.
Into that, the third-quarter season starts with the banks. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup report on Tuesday, and Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday, after a sell-off driven by higher yields, a weaker fee outlook from Bank of America and a bout of worry about AI disruption. The quarter itself may look better than the share prices suggest: JPMorgan has said its deal fees and trading revenue are tracking up by a mid-to-high-teens percentage. UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson open healthcare the same morning. ASML and TSMC, a day apart, give the first results from the equipment and foundry ends of the AI build since last week’s pull-back in chip stocks, and Interactive Brokers closes our picks on Thursday evening. Twenty-three names make our calendar.
🇹🇼 Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC)
TSMC reports third-quarter results on Thursday, with the call at 2:00pm Taipei time, after the local close and before the US open. Most of the revenue is already known. Monthly sales for July to September came to NT$1.494tn, up 51% on the year; at the NT$32 to the dollar assumed in guidance, that is about US$46.7bn, roughly 2% above the top of the US$44.6–45.8bn range set in July and above the LSEG consensus of NT$1.46tn. The July guide also pointed to a gross margin of 65–67%, against 67.7% in the second quarter, as the ramp of the 2-nanometre process and overseas fabs dilute margins, and raised 2026 capital spending to US$60–64bn. LSEG consensus puts quarterly net profit at about NT$741bn, up 64% on the year; the second quarter included about NT$63bn of pre-tax gains on its stake in Vanguard International Semiconductor. The US shares closed Friday at $453.31, down 4.1% on the week and about 7% below the closing high they set on Monday.
Our readThe fourth-quarter guide is the swing factor, with third-quarter revenue largely in hand. Yuanta and JPMorgan expect revenue to grow by about 11–13% on the quarter, and Yuanta forecasts a fourth-quarter gross margin of about 68%, so the margin range may matter as much as the revenue figure, given the 3–4 points of dilution from 2nm that management flagged for the second half. Watch the third-quarter gross margin against the 65–67% guide, where a Taiwan dollar weaker than in the second quarter may help; any steer on 2027 capital spending, which TSMC usually sets out in January and where those two brokers’ estimates run at about US$80–86bn; and CoWoS advanced packaging, where C.C. Wei said in July that capacity was so tight it limited customers’ growth. The read-across is to the AI supply chain broadly, the day after ASML and two weeks after Micron guided to about $61.5bn of revenue for its current quarter and said it expected supply to be much tighter in 2027 and 2028, though TSMC’s mix of AI and smartphone chips makes it a broader read than most AI names.
- Quality85
- Growth80
- Value33
- Momentum81
- Relative Strength98
- P/E (TTM)
- 29.6
- YTD return
- +61%
- Dividend yield (TTM)
- 0.9%
🇺🇸 JPMorgan Chase
JPMorgan reports third-quarter results before the US open on Tuesday, with the call at 8:30am Eastern, the same morning as Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs. The second quarter was strong even before one-off items: earnings were $7.70 a share, or $6.14 excluding gains on its Visa shares and other investments, on managed revenue of $58.0bn, with equities trading revenue up 86% and investment-banking fees up 30%. Management then raised its 2026 guidance to about $96.5bn of net interest income excluding Markets, or about $105.5bn in total, and to about $107.5bn of adjusted expense, with a card charge-off rate of about 3.2%. In September, co-president Doug Petno said third-quarter investment-banking fees and markets revenue were each tracking up by a mid-to-high-teens percentage on the year. LSEG consensus for earnings is $5.94 a share, against $5.07 a year ago. The shares closed Friday at $332.99, about 9% below their August closing high; the KBW Bank Index ended about 12% below its own.
Our readNet interest income is the swing factor. On our arithmetic, the full-year guide implies about $24.75bn a quarter excluding Markets in the second half, about $1bn more than in the second quarter, and the question is whether higher long-term yields and the Fed’s September increase, mostly a fourth-quarter effect, add to that or are offset by deposit costs and slower loan growth. Watch expenses, which Petno suggested could rise with revenue-related pay; credit, which he called benign in September while listing rate-sensitive borrowers and lower-income consumers among the areas the bank is watching; and the fourth-quarter deal pipeline, after Jamie Dimon said on 6 October that it had slowed a little in September. The read-across is to the lenders reporting later in the week, from Bank of America to PNC, though JPMorgan’s scale and large markets business make it an imperfect guide to most of them.
- Quality74
- Growth55
- Value26
- Momentum62
- Relative Strength67
- P/E (TTM)
- 13.7
- YTD return
- +2%
- Dividend yield (TTM)
- 1.8%
🇳🇱 ASML
ASML reports third-quarter results at 7:00am Amsterdam time on Wednesday, with the call at 3:00pm. It reports without the figure that used to set the tone: ASML stopped publishing quarterly orders at the start of this year, so attention shifts to sales, margins and what management says about 2027. In July it guided third-quarter sales to €11–12bn at a gross margin of 55–57%, after second-quarter sales of €9.3bn at 54.0%, and raised its full-year outlook to €43–45bn from €36–40bn. On our arithmetic, after €18.1bn in the first half, the midpoints imply fourth-quarter sales of about €14.4bn. The finance chief said in July that 2027 capacity for its standard, or Low-NA, EUV systems was close to fully covered by orders and that ASML planned to raise that capacity by about 30%. US estimate services Zacks and MarketBeat put earnings at about $12.1–12.5 a share on sales of about $13.2bn. The Amsterdam shares closed Friday at €1,601.60, about 7% below their June closing high and about 90% above their level a year ago.
Our readThe first view of 2027 is the swing factor. ASML has usually given an initial steer on the following year with its third-quarter results, but so far it has given no sales figure for 2027, and it plans to update its longer-term outlook at a capital markets day in June 2027. Watch China, which ASML expects to be about 20% of 2026 sales against about 16% in the first half, implying a stronger second half there; export controls, with proposals in Congress to bar sales of immersion DUV tools to China, and a suspended US rule extending export restrictions to companies at least 50%-owned by entities on the US Entity List, due to return on 10 November unless extended; and the memory build, after Micron said it expected to spend about $25bn of capital in the first half of its new fiscal year, with more in the second. The read-across is to TSMC the next day and to Lam Research and KLA later in the month, though each has a different mix of China and memory exposure.
- Quality94
- Growth78
- Value26
- Momentum70
- Relative Strength98
- P/E (TTM)
- 58.0
- YTD return
- +62%
- Dividend yield (TTM)
- 0.5%
🇺🇸 UnitedHealth Group
UnitedHealth reports third-quarter results before the US open on Tuesday, with the call at 8:00am Eastern. The second quarter bought the turnaround some credibility: adjusted earnings of $6.38 a share beat the LSEG consensus of $4.90, and the medical care ratio, the share of premiums paid out in care, fell to 86.7% from 89.4% a year earlier, with $860m of favourable reserve development accounting for about a point of the improvement. Management raised full-year guidance to $19.50–20.00 of adjusted earnings a share, from more than $18.25, with a medical care ratio of 88.1%, plus or minus a quarter point. That leaves a heavier second half. Assuming second-half premiums broadly match the first half, our arithmetic puts the average ratio across the third and fourth quarters near 91%, against 89.9% in the third quarter of 2025, and the finance chief has said about three-quarters of UnitedHealthcare’s earnings fall in the first half. Consensus is about $4.12–4.15 a share, against $2.92 a year ago, on revenue of about $111.4bn, and Zacks puts the expected ratio near 90.1%. The shares closed Friday at $379.30, about 13% below their July closing high.
Our readThe third-quarter medical care ratio is the swing factor, judged against the year-ago 89.9% and the roughly 90% the Street expects rather than the full-year 88.1%, since costs run higher in the second half. Watch whether management holds or nudges its range, and what it says about 2027. The Medicare Advantage star ratings published on 8 October were weaker for UnitedHealth: J.P. Morgan estimates that about 67% of its members are now in plans rated four stars or more, down from about 81%, though the company said the results were in line with its expectations, and they feed into bonus payments from 2028 rather than 2027. It has also cut benefits and plans for 2027, with about 390,000 members in plans being discontinued, according to Bloomberg, as open enrolment begins on 15 October. The read-across is to Elevance and Molina on 21 October and CVS on 4 November; Humana, the clearest winner in this year’s ratings, faces a different setup.
- Quality78
- Growth37
- Value59
- Momentum79
- Relative Strength77
- P/E (TTM)
- 24.4
- YTD return
- +13%
- Dividend yield (TTM)
- 2.4%
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🇺🇸 Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs reports third-quarter results before the US open on Tuesday, with the call at 9:30am Eastern. Second-quarter revenue rose 39% to $20.34bn and earnings were $20.98 a share, as equities trading revenue reached $7.42bn and investment-banking fees rose 55% to $3.40bn, while assets under supervision reached $4.04tn. The third quarter looks quieter. Estimates compiled by Bloomberg put equities trading revenue at the largest US banks near $19bn, with Goldman expected to lead at about $5.1bn, narrowly ahead of Morgan Stanley; that would be about 36% above a year ago but about 31% below the second quarter. Announced global M&A deal value fell 41% on the quarter to $993bn, according to LSEG, though equity issuance was up 39% on the year. At a conference in September, David Solomon said equities remained very strong while fixed income was a little softer, the investments line would be much more muted and non-compensation expenses would be more than $500m higher than in the second quarter. Consensus sits at about $12.4–13.3 a share, against $12.25 a year ago. The shares closed Friday at $895.32, about 22% below their July closing high.
Our readFixed income and the fee outlook are the swing factor. Equities are expected to be strong, so the questions are how much softer fixed income was and what the backlog says about the fourth quarter, after a slower third quarter for M&A and with a thin near-term US IPO calendar. Watch asset and wealth management, where management and other fees rose 20% in the second quarter, and fundraising for alternatives; and whether the costs Solomon flagged leave the margin below what the Street expects. Succession may also come up: the Wall Street Journal reported that the board has discussed naming John Waldron chief executive, though the company has said there is no definitive timeline. The read-across is to Morgan Stanley on Wednesday and to advisory firms later in the month, including Lazard on 22 October, though Goldman’s trading and asset-management businesses make it more than a deals proxy.
- Quality69
- Growth70
- Value34
- Momentum26
- Relative Strength72
- P/E (TTM)
- 12.6
- YTD return
- −2%
- Dividend yield (TTM)
- 2.0%
🇺🇸 Johnson & Johnson
Johnson & Johnson reports third-quarter results before the US open on Tuesday, with the call at 8:30am Eastern. Two deals have changed the arithmetic since its last report. Two weeks after raising its guidance in July, J&J cut its full-year adjusted earnings guide to $10.96–11.11 a share, from $11.60–11.75, to absorb the purchase of Firefly Bio, which brings a charge of about $1bn for acquired research in the third quarter, and an option deal with Sail Biomedicines; J&J does not exclude such charges from adjusted earnings. Sales guidance was unchanged at $100.8–101.4bn. In the second quarter, sales rose 6.6% to $25.31bn. Innovative Medicine grew 6.8% operationally, led by Darzalex, Tremfya and Carvykti, while MedTech grew 3.6% on the same basis, with sales of Abiomed’s heart pumps down 2%, and Stelara, now facing biosimilars, fell 55%. Across the five estimate services we checked, consensus runs from about $2.48 to $2.72 a share, against $2.80 a year ago, on sales of about $25.3–25.4bn. That is a wide range, and not every estimate may reflect the Firefly charge. The shares closed Friday at $261.44, about 6% below their September closing high.
Our readMedTech is the swing factor, as the slower-growing part of the business and the one being reshaped: J&J plans to separate its orthopaedics unit, DePuy Synthes, and Bloomberg reported in September that Apollo was in talks to buy it for about $20bn, though no deal has been announced. Watch Stelara, whose decline eased in the second quarter, and Simponi, which faces biosimilars in Europe and possibly the US later this year; the pace of newer drugs such as Tremfya and the oral psoriasis drug Icotyde; and talc, where J&J proposed in July to settle about 76,000 ovarian cancer claims for $5.5bn, subject to 95% participation, against a reserve of about $3.7bn at the end of June. The read-across is to large drugmakers and device makers later in the month, with Abbott on 21 October and Novartis on 27 October, though J&J’s mix of drugs, devices and litigation makes it a broad rather than a precise read.
- Quality87
- Growth41
- Value31
- Momentum83
- Relative Strength61
- P/E (TTM)
- 29.9
- YTD return
- +26%
- Dividend yield (TTM)
- 2.0%
🇺🇸 Interactive Brokers
Interactive Brokers reports third-quarter results after the US close on Thursday, at about 4:00pm Eastern, with the call at 4:30pm. Its monthly figures already sketch the quarter. Client accounts reached 5.58m at the end of September, up 35% on the year, and client equity $965bn, up 27%. Trading slowed, though: daily average revenue trades, or DARTs, fell 4% from August to 4.11m in September, only 6% above a year earlier, and on our arithmetic averaged about 4.27m in the quarter, about 11% below the second quarter. Margin loans ended September at $105.2bn, up 36% on the year but below June’s $108.5bn. In the second quarter, adjusted net revenues were $1.88bn and earnings $0.69 a share, with net interest income of $1.06bn and a pre-tax margin of 77%. Consensus sits near $0.67–0.68 a share on revenue of $1.86–1.87bn, against $0.57 a year ago. The shares closed Friday at $87.87, about 10% below their August closing high, after UBS downgraded them on valuation on 1 September.
Our readNet interest income is the swing factor, as more than half of second-quarter revenue and a line that depends on client balances as much as on rates. The Fed’s September increase helps only at the margin this quarter: the company estimates each quarter-point rise in US rates adds about $81m of net interest income a year, so most of the effect, if rates hold, would show from the fourth quarter. Watch commissions against the slowdown in trading, and whether annualised cleared DARTs per account, which fell from 222 in June to 159 in September, pick up; account growth, which has held at about 35% a year; and any update on newer products such as prediction markets. The read-across is to retail brokerage more broadly, with Schwab reporting the same morning and Robinhood on 27 October, though IBKR’s international and more active client base makes it a narrower read than Schwab.
- Quality66
- Growth81
- Value2
- Momentum46
- Relative Strength67
- P/E (TTM)
- 82.5
- YTD return
- +31%
- Dividend yield (TTM)
- 0.4%
Weekly Calendar
Some notable names reporting this week. LVMH opens the calendar on Monday evening in Paris, while the US bond market is closed for Columbus Day. Timing refers to each company’s home-market session. Times marked “(exp.)” are inferred from past releases, the scheduled call or the home market’s convention rather than stated by the company. Share prices and consensus estimates in the previews above are as of Friday 9 October.
| Company | Country | Sector | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday 12-Oct | |||
| LVMH | 🇫🇷 | Luxury goods | AMC |
| Tuesday 13-Oct | |||
| JPMorgan Chase | 🇺🇸 | Diversified bank | BMO |
| UnitedHealth Group | 🇺🇸 | Health insurance & services | BMO |
| Goldman Sachs | 🇺🇸 | Investment banking & trading | BMO |
| Johnson & Johnson | 🇺🇸 | Pharmaceuticals & medtech | BMO |
| Wells Fargo | 🇺🇸 | Consumer & commercial bank | BMO |
| Citigroup | 🇺🇸 | Global diversified bank | BMO |
| Wednesday 14-Oct | |||
| ASML | 🇳🇱 | Chip lithography equipment | BMO |
| Bank of America | 🇺🇸 | Diversified bank | BMO |
| Morgan Stanley | 🇺🇸 | Investment banking & wealth management | BMO |
| BlackRock | 🇺🇸 | Asset management | BMO |
| Progressive | 🇺🇸 | Auto & home insurance | BMO |
| Fastenal | 🇺🇸 | Industrial distribution | BMO |
| Thursday 15-Oct | |||
| TSMC | 🇹🇼 | Contract chipmaking | Post-close (exp.) |
| Interactive Brokers | 🇺🇸 | Online brokerage | AMC |
| Charles Schwab | 🇺🇸 | Brokerage & wealth management | BMO (exp.) |
| Prologis | 🇺🇸 | Logistics real estate | BMO (exp.) |
| BNY | 🇺🇸 | Custody & asset servicing | BMO |
| PNC Financial Services | 🇺🇸 | Regional bank | BMO |
| Marsh | 🇺🇸 | Insurance broking & consulting | BMO |
| Nordea | 🇫🇮 | Nordic bank | BMO |
| Ericsson | 🇸🇪 | Telecom network equipment | BMO |
| Friday 16-Oct | |||
| Travelers | 🇺🇸 | Property & casualty insurance | BMO |