Earnings to Watch – Week of 4 May 2026

$PLTR reports Q1 after the close, and consensus has settled near $0.28 EPS on revenue of roughly $1.54 billion, implying about 74% growth. The setup is unusual: government revenue is pegged at $763.8 million (around 57% growth) and commercial at $771.5 million (roughly 94% growth), with US commercial guided to 115% for the full year. Q4 already delivered 137% US commercial growth and a Rule of 40 print near 127%, so the bar is for re-acceleration on top of an already extreme number. The other axis is valuation. At roughly $330 billion of market cap and a forward sales multiple in the high tens, Palantir trades like a category-defining piece of AI infrastructure rather than a mid-cap data and analytics business, and political scrutiny of its government contracts has picked up. The questions for Monday: whether AIP deal count keeps compounding off a larger base, what the customer mix inside US commercial looks like at the $5 million and $10 million bands, and whether management raises full-year guidance again. Anything short of a clean beat-and-raise gets unforgiving treatment at this multiple.

$AMD prints Q1 after the close having already guided revenue to roughly $9.8 billion (plus or minus $300 million) and non-GAAP gross margin near 55%. Consensus sits in line with that range at about $9.84 billion of revenue and $1.27 of EPS, up around 32% and 33% year on year. The stock has run hard, up roughly 60% over the past month and almost three times in twelve months, and now sits as the 20th most valuable listed company globally. The print is less about Q1 and more about the second half. AMD has confirmed the MI400 series and the Helios rack-scale platform for the back half of 2026, and the OpenAI partnership announced last October contemplates 6 gigawatts of GPUs over multiple years, with the first 1 gigawatt of MI450 capacity beginning to deploy this year. Watch for any framing of MI355X versus MI400 unit ramps, the cadence of hyperscaler bookings inside the Data Center segment, China MI308 commentary now that revenue has dropped from around $390 million to roughly $100 million per quarter, and any colour on Meta volumes. With NVIDIA having already set the pace for AI infrastructure spend, this is the cleanest read on whether AMD is finally translating its share-of-spec story into share-of-spend.

$ARM reports fiscal Q4 after the close, having guided revenue to $1.47 billion plus or minus $50 million and non-GAAP EPS to $0.58 plus or minus $0.04, with royalties up low teens and licensing up high teens year on year. Royalty revenue hit a record $737 million in Q3 with 27% year-on-year growth, driven by general-purpose data centre, smartphones and the early edge AI ramp. The setup is tougher than the headline. The stock is up roughly 76% year to date, several sell-side desks have flagged Q4 as a tougher read after the run, and TSMC's exit from the register has not helped sentiment. The questions for Wednesday: how the v9 royalty mix is progressing inside flagship smartphones, the pace of Neoverse design wins as hyperscalers continue to vertically integrate on Arm-based CPUs, any update on Arm-designed silicon optionality, and how management frames the FY2027 setup, where Wells Fargo expects a roughly 20% revenue growth reiterate. The bar is reiterate-and-extend rather than upside surprise.

$NVO reports Q1 in the morning at 07:30 CEST, and the framing is rare for a pharma name of this scale: management has guided full-year 2026 sales and operating profit to fall by between 5% and 13%, citing US pricing pressure and loss of exclusivity for semaglutide in China, Brazil and Canada. Lilly, by contrast, has guided 2026 revenue to $80-83 billion, implying around 25% growth at the midpoint. The stock has roughly halved from its 2024 peak. The competitive picture has shifted again over the past month. Novo's oral semaglutide for obesity hit roughly 50,000 weekly prescriptions inside three weeks of launch, and early scripts for Lilly's competing oral pill have come in well below the early Wegovy pace. The questions for Wednesday: how Q1 Wegovy and Ozempic volumes held up against compounding pressure and the Lilly oral launch, the pricing trajectory in the US after the latest IRA negotiations, what 2026 guidance looks like after a quarter of new data, and any framing of the next-generation pipeline including CagriSema. With expectations now extreme to the downside, even an unchanged guide could move the stock.

$DIS reports fiscal Q2 before the open. The Q1 print set a high bar: Disney+ and Hulu revenue of $5.35 billion was up 11%, streaming operating income jumped 72% to $450 million on an 8.4% margin, Experiences revenue hit a record $10 billion, and the company reaffirmed full-year FY2026 guidance for double-digit operating income growth in entertainment, a 10% streaming margin, $7 billion of buybacks and double-digit adjusted EPS growth. Sports is the soft spot. Operating income there fell 23% to $191 million, hit by rising rights costs and a $110 million drag from the YouTube TV blackout last autumn, and the ESPN spin-off has now been formally shelved with sports repositioned as core to the streaming bundle. Management has already flagged that Q2 Experiences operating income growth would be modest, weighed by international visitation, cruise pre-launch costs and the World of Frozen opening in Paris. The questions for Wednesday: where the streaming margin lands as ESPN flagship begins to roll across Europe and Asia-Pacific on Disney+, how parks margins absorbed the well-flagged headwinds, and whether full-year guidance is reaffirmed or trimmed. The stock is down roughly 10% year to date, so the multiple has come in even as fundamentals have firmed.

$SHEL reports Q1 with the trading update already pointing to one of the better quarters for downstream in two years. Shell raised its indicative refining margin to $17 per barrel from $14, a meaningful step up in a quarter where peers have generally guided up on refining alongside softer upstream. Production is expected at 880-920 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from 948 thousand in Q4. The capital return story remains the anchor: Shell has run at least $3 billion of buybacks for 17 consecutive quarters, with $3.5 billion authorised for Q1, and the dividend will be confirmed alongside the print. Underneath the headline, watch for the LNG trading contribution after the Q4 step-down, integrated gas volumes as new BG-era assets continue to mature, the cadence of Marketing earnings, and the pace of US Gulf and Brazil project ramps that underpin the production outlook. With the stock close to fair value on most sell-side models and a 4.1% yield, the print is more likely to confirm the steady cash-return narrative than to reset the equity story.

Rheinmetall reports Q1 into the strongest defence demand backdrop in a generation. 2025 defence sales rose 29% to €9.9 billion and operating profit grew 33% to €1.84 billion at an 18.5% margin, with backlog up 36% to a record €63.8 billion. Management is guiding 2026 sales to €14.0-14.5 billion, implying 40-45% growth, with margin around 19%. The macro is supportive: the EU has activated the national escape clause for 17 member states, unlocking around €650 billion of fiscal headroom, and Germany is moving toward 3.5% of GDP on equipment alone by 2029. Recent contract flow includes a roughly €3.3 billion Lynx programme for Romania (up to 298 vehicles) and ongoing Lynx and Panther negotiations in Italy that could total around €10 billion, alongside the new Unterlüß ammunition expansion in Lower Saxony. The stock is well off its 2024-25 highs after a sharp run, and the questions for Thursday: how Q1 deliveries are tracking against the 40-45% sales guide, the conversion path from backlog to revenue given long lead times on artillery shells and vehicles, any further clarity on US programmes, and the timing of new German federal orders that have been delayed by the election cycle. Backlog growth will frame the next leg of the story more than the Q1 P&L.

$TM closes the week with full-year FY2026 results (year ended 31 March 2026), and the print is dominated by tariffs. The company has been guiding US tariff impact to roughly ¥1.45 trillion of operating profit for the year, up from an earlier ¥1.4 trillion, against a full-year operating income guide of ¥3.8 trillion. Q3 already showed the pattern: revenues holding up but operating income falling on tariff drag, with management nonetheless edging the full-year outlook higher on the back of cost takeout and a more favourable mix. The strategic posture has been to absorb rather than retreat: Toyota has reaffirmed three million units of Japanese domestic production and expanded US assembly capacity rather than re-pricing aggressively. The questions for Friday: where FY2026 operating income lands within the ¥3.8 trillion frame, what initial FY2027 guidance looks like given the still-fluid tariff picture, the pace of hybrid and BEV mix in North America, and any update on the electric Lexus and Crown roadmap. The stock has been a relative laggard among Japanese megacaps. The print sets the tone for European auto earnings into mid-May.